Battenfeld: It’s still Charlie Baker’s GOP in Massachusetts

It s still Charlie Baker s Republican Party in Massachusetts More than two years after he departed the Corner Office for the NCAA Baker continues to dominate the Bay State GOP with two Baker disciples Brian Shortsleeve and Mike Kennealy now the leading candidates to take on Democrat Maura Healey in GOP donor and businessman Michael Minogue who has raised money for the Trump ticket is also considering a gubernatorial campaign as the Herald has published But despite the influence of MAGA the only Republican who can win statewide next November is someone who owns the Baker brand of Republicanism A Trump Republican won t cut it statewide in a general electoral contest About million people voted for Trump in Massachusetts last year but that s not nearly enough to win A MassINC Polling Group survey this year manifested Baker with a - lead over Sen Ed Markey while a UMass Amherst poll this year unveiled that Baker was running dead even with Markey though Baker has reported he isn t running for Senate But the polls show just how formidable the Baker name still is in Massachusetts He could waltz into the Senate race if he sought and become instantly competitive Shortsleeve and Kennealy both have close ties to the former Republican governor Shortsleeve ran the MBTA under Baker and Kennealy was Baker s housing secretary Kennealy has already hired two former Baker aides adviser Jim Conroy and former campaign manager Bryan Wynne But Shortsleeve has the bulk feasible to emerge as Baker s successor in leading the party He s a Marine veteran who led the MBTA under Baker and is vowing to repeal the MBTA Communities Act which is unpopular in a multitude of communities Shortsleeve has also charged that Healey is prioritizing immigrants over veterans and ordinary voters Healey has largely been a disappointment in her handling of the migrant emergency and the budget She could be vulnerable to a tough challenge from a Baker type moderate She is now blaming Trump for everything which is a cop-out The concern for both Shortsleeve and Kennealy and potentially Minogue is that they have to appeal to GOP conservatives in the primary then speedily pivot to appeal to moderates in the general Baker left deeply unpopular with Trump voters and may not have been able to win a primary when he made his exit despite his popularity But when he was governor Baker was a rare unifying leader in Massachusetts with Democrats and all but the most of conservative of Republicans embracing him throughout his two terms His harsh criticism of Donald Trump alienated him from the conservative wing of the party but did not take much of a toll on his popularity in fact it perhaps helped him Baker had his own style of governing taking a mostly moderate to liberal path on social issues and a conservative path on fiscal issues And it worked He left office in with astonishing approval ratings nearly across all demographic and political groups except conservatives according to a UMass Amherst poll He was far and away more popular than either of the two candidates running to replace him including Maura Healey This came despite several scandals during the Covid era that cut into his popularity Seven in ten voters commented he handled the pandemic well with more than six in ten voters giving him high marks on the economic system One third of voters revealed he left Massachusetts in better shape than when he first took over in while just disclosed it was worse off than before A MassINC poll circulated in Jan exposed that of voters yearned the next governor to be like Baker ideologically and were more likely to backing a candidate who had Baker s endorsement